Drivers across South Africa can expect a welcome relief at the pumps next week, as petrol and diesel prices are set to decrease significantly.
Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that fuel price recoveries in October ended firmly in the positive, paving the way for cuts in November. Unless government interventions or last-minute adjustments—such as changes to the slate levy—occur, the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources is expected to announce reductions before they take effect on Wednesday, 5 November.
The official announcement typically comes the day before implementation, following finalisation on the preceding Friday.
Current figures indicate substantial over-recoveries: petrol prices are over-recovered by 51–55 cents per litre, while diesel shows an over-recovery of 18–21 cents per litre. Based on these calculations, expected price changes include:
- Petrol 93: Decrease of 55 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Decrease of 51 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Decrease of 21 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 18 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: Decrease of 1 cent per litre
Fuel prices fluctuated throughout October, influenced by a late-month spike in global oil prices. However, a stronger rand against the US dollar helped offset these increases, contributing to the over-recoveries. The rand remained relatively stable, trading between R17.30 and the dollar for much of the month, despite occasional swings driven by international developments.
Global oil markets experienced a volatile October, with crude prices ranging between $60 and $70 a barrel. Prices were affected by trade tensions between the US and China, US sanctions on Russian oil, and ongoing concerns about supply and demand imbalances. Analysts predict oil is on track for a third consecutive monthly decline, as expectations of oversupply counter global demand pressures.
The OPEC+ producers’ group is scheduled to discuss output policy this week, with potential moves to increase production in December. Meanwhile, investors remain focused on how the US-China trade negotiations and India’s continued import of Russian oil may influence global markets.
For South African motorists, these developments translate into a tangible reduction at the pump—likely the most welcome news for drivers heading into November.
